Food and energy joined forces to take a bite out of consumer’s wallets last month, according to prospects ahead of Tuesday’s release of the Consumer Price Index.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to grow 0.1 percent overall in March, according to the median estimate from Friday’s Bloomberg consensus of analysts. This increase would match the low levels of inflation in January and February. It would improve however on last March’s 0.2 percent decrease in consumer prices.
In contrast to previous months where most economists agreed on what to expect from the index, this month’s estimates come with a healthy dose of disagreement. While roughly half of the economists expected the overall CPI figure, also known as the headline rate, to increase minimally, others expect a bigger spike.
“Forecasters such as myself maybe have been lulled into a false sense of security simply because the CPI numbers have been so benign for so long,” Russell Price, senior economist for Ameriprise Financial, said.
Price’s estimate ahead of the index’s release currently stands at 0.3 percent, which would represent the biggest increase since last June. Price cited food prices as the main factor behind his predicted jump.
Food prices skyrocketed in March due to droughts both new and old. Beef prices hit an all-time high, as cattle ranchers grappled with the small herds leftover from a previous drought in the Midwest. California’s current heat wave caused a substantial increase in fruit and vegetable prices.
“It doesn’t matter if you’re an omnivore or a vegan or a vegetarian; whatever you are, you’re getting screwed,” Price said.
Meanwhile, higher crude oil prices due to unrest in Eastern Europe pushed the cost of gasoline upward, as Russia is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. This current increase may be short-lived however.
“Unless there is some geopolitical event, it’s likely that we’ll see energy prices edging down over much of the rest of the year,” said David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Economics.
Girding these projections were the March figures for import prices and producer prices. Producer prices recorded their biggest gain since last June because of mushrooming food costs. Import prices also exceeded expectations in March for the same reason.
Despite these gains in inflation due to food and energy, the Fed is unlikely to change its course. The central bank focuses solely on the CPI core rate, which is the price of all goods excluding food and energy. Ahead of Tuesday’s release, almost all economists agreed the core rate will hold steady at 0.1 percent.
So stock and bond markets don’t have to worry – well, at least for now.
“As income growth goes up and the unemployment rate falls, we’ll start to see some modest increases,” Berson said.